West Long Branch, NJ – Hillary Clinton has a 5 point lead over Donald Trump in Wisconsin according to the Monmouth University Poll. In the race for U.S. Senate, Russ Feingold has a sizable 13 point lead in his bid to retake the seat held by Ron Johnson.
Among Wisconsin voters likely to cast ballots in November’s presidential election, 43% currently support Clinton and 38% back Trump. Another 7% intend to vote for Libertarian Gary Johnson, 3% back Jill Stein of the Green Party, and 8% are undecided. Slightly more Democrats back Clinton (89%) than Republicans who back Trump (83%). Independents are divided at 37% for Trump and 34% for Clinton, with 10% supporting Johnson and 6% supporting Stein.
Trump leads among white voters by a slim 2 points (42% to 40%), similar to the 3 point margin Mitt Romney had with this group in 2012 (51% to 48%). Trump is doing better than Romney among white men – 51% to 29% compared to Romney’s 56% to 42% win – but worse among white women – losing 33% to 50% for Clinton compared to Romney’s 46% to 53% loss to Barack Obama. Clinton leads by 55 points among black, Hispanic, and Asian voters (67% to 12%), similar to Obama’s 60 point win (79% to 19%) with this group four years ago.
“The current presidential election race in Wisconsin is looking a lot like the 2012 contest right now,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute.
Wisconsin voters tend to be even more negative about the two major party nominees than voters in the rest of the country. Just 34% in the Badger State have a favorable opinion of Clinton and 50% have an unfavorable view of her, while only 26% have a favorable opinion of Trump and 57% have an unfavorable view of him.
Clinton also does slightly better when it comes to “looking out for the little guy.” While 43% say the Democratic nominee would do a good job at this, 49% say she would do a bad job. Trump scores worse on this metric with 35% who say he would do a good job looking out for the little guy and 56% who say he would do a bad job.
Recent events in Milwaukee have put race relations firmly on the presidential agenda in Wisconsin. More voters think Clinton (56%) rather than Trump (33%) will do a better job of handling this issue nationally.
While the presidential race is fairly close, the same cannot be said for the U.S. Senate election. Democrat Russ Feingold holds a sizable 54% to 41% lead over incumbent Ron Johnson, with 2% supporting Libertarian Phil Anderson and just 3% who are undecided. Six years ago, Johnson unseated then-incumbent Feingold by a narrower 5 point margin in that year’s Republican wave.
“It looks like Feingold could get a bit of redemption for that stinging loss in 2010,” said Murray.
Johnson still has some potential to mount a comeback since his job performance rating registers a net positive of 44% approve and 38% disapprove. However, Feingold is better known and better liked overall. Voters’ personal ratings of Feingold stand at 46% favorable and 26% unfavorable, with 28% having no opinion. Johnson’s personal ratings are 34% favorable and 30% unfavorable, with 36% having no opinion.
More than 9-in-10 Clinton voters (92%) are voting party line by supporting Feingold, while 6% are backing Johnson. Fewer Trump voters (84%) are staying in the Republican column by backing Johnson, while 15% are supporting Feingold.
The Monmouth University Poll was conducted by telephone from August 27 to 30, 2016 with 404 Wisconsin residents likely to vote in the November election. This sample has a margin of error of ±4.9 percent. The poll was conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute in West Long Branch, NJ.
QUESTIONS AND RESULTS
(* Some columns may not add to 100% due to rounding.)
1/2. If the election for President was today, would you vote for Donald Trump the Republican, Hillary Clinton the Democrat, Gary Johnson the Libertarian, or Jill Stein of the Green Party?
[IF UNDECIDED: If you had to vote for one of the following candidates at this moment, who do you lean toward – Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton?] [NAMES WERE ROTATED]
| (with leaners) | Aug. 2016 |
| Donald Trump | 38% |
| Hillary Clinton | 43% |
| Gary Johnson | 7% |
| Jill Stein | 3% |
| (VOL) Other candidate | 1% |
| (VOL) Undecided | 8% |
| Unwtd N | 404 |
3. If the election for U.S. Senate was today, would you vote for Ron Johnson the Republican, Russ Feingold the Democrat, or Phil Anderson the Libertarian? [IF UNDECIDED: If you had to vote for one of the following candidates at this moment, who do you lean toward – Ron Johnson or Russ Feingold?] [NAMES WERE ROTATED]
| (with leaners) | Aug. 2016 |
| Ron Johnson | 41% |
| Russ Feingold | 54% |
| Phil Anderson | 2% |
| (VOL) Undecided | 3% |
| Unwtd N | 404 |
Regardless of who you may support for president…
[QUESTIONS 4 & 5 WERE ROTATED]
4. Is your general impression of Donald Trump favorable or unfavorable, or do you have no opinion of him?
| Aug. 2016 | |
| Favorable | 26% |
| Unfavorable | 57% |
| No opinion | 17% |
| Unwtd N | 404 |
5. Is your general impression of Hillary Clinton favorable or unfavorable, or do you have no opinion of her?
| Aug. 2016 | |
| Favorable | 34% |
| Unfavorable | 50% |
| No opinion | 16% |
| Unwtd N | 404 |
[QUESTIONS 6 & 7 WERE ROTATED]
6. Do you think Donald Trump as president would do a good job or bad job of looking out for the little guy?
| Aug. 2016 | |
| Good job | 35% |
| Bad job | 56% |
| (VOL) Don’t know | 9% |
| Unwtd N | 404 |
7. Do you think Hillary Clinton as president would do a good job or bad job of looking out for the little guy?
| Aug. 2016 | |
| Good job | 43% |
| Bad job | 49% |
| (VOL) Don’t know | 9% |
| Unwtd N | 404 |
Turning to the Senate race…
[QUESTIONS 8 & 9 WERE ROTATED]
8. Is your general impression of Ron Johnson favorable or unfavorable, or do you have no opinion of him?
| Aug. 2016 | |
| Favorable | 34% |
| Unfavorable | 30% |
| No opinion | 36% |
| Unwtd N | 404 |
9. Is your general impression of Russ Feingold favorable or unfavorable, or do you have no opinion of him?
| Aug. 2016 | |
| Favorable | 46% |
| Unfavorable | 26% |
| No opinion | 28% |
| Unwtd N | 404 |
10. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Ron Johnson is doing as U.S. senator?
| Aug. 2016 | |
| Approve | 44% |
| Disapprove | 38% |
| (VOL) No opinion | 18% |
| Unwtd N | 404 |
[QUESTIONS 11 & 12 WERE ROTATED]
11. Is Ron Johnson too supportive of Donald Trump, not supportive enough, or does he give the right amount of support to Trump?
| Aug. 2016 | |
| Too supportive | 18% |
| Not supportive enough | 13% |
| Right amount of support | 35% |
| (VOL) Don’t know | 35% |
| Unwtd N | 404 |
12. Is Russ Feingold too supportive of Hillary Clinton, not supportive enough, or does he give the right amount of support to Clinton?
| Aug. 2016 | |
| Too supportive | 16% |
| Not supportive enough | 5% |
| Right amount of support | 44% |
| (VOL) Don’t know | 35% |
| Unwtd N | 404 |
On another topic…
13. Who would do a better job handling race relations in the country – Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton? [NAMES WERE ROTATED]
| Aug. 2016 | |
| Trump | 33% |
| Clinton | 56% |
| (VOL) Neither | 7% |
| (VOL) Don’t know | 4% |
| Unwtd N | 404 |
METHODOLOGY
The Monmouth University Poll was sponsored and conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute from August 27 to 30, 2016 with a random sample of 404 likely Wisconsin voters. Interviews were conducted by a live caller in English, including 354 drawn from a list of registered voters (203 landline / 151 cell phone) and a random digit dial supplement of 50 cell phone interviews. Monmouth is responsible for all aspects of the survey design, data weighting and analysis. The final sample is weighted for age, gender, race and partisanship based on voter list and U.S. Census information. Data collection support provided by Braun Research (field), Aristotle (voter list sample), and SSI (RDD sample). For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the error attributable to sampling has a maximum margin of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points (unadjusted for sample design). Sampling error can be larger for sub-groups (see table below). In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinion polls.
| DEMOGRAPHICS (weighted) |
Self-Reported |
| 26% Republican |
| 43% Independent |
| 32% Democrat |
| 48% Male |
| 52% Female |
| 22% 18-34 |
| 22% 35-49 |
| 32% 50-64 |
| 24% 65+ |
| 88% White |
6% Black |
4% Hispanic |
2% Other |
Click on pdf file link below for full methodology and results by key demographic groups.
