Partisanship Drives Concern Over Classified Documents

West Long Branch, NJ – More Americans believe former President Donald Trump knew about the classified documents in his possession than those who say the same about either President Joe Biden or former Vice President Mike Pence. However, Republicans show much more concern about the potential national security threats posed by Biden’s documents than about Trump’s. The opposite is true among Democrats. The Monmouth (“Mon-muth”) University Poll finds that the classified documents issue does not seem to have affected Biden’s job rating. The poll also finds mixed reviews and low awareness of the new leaders in the U.S. House of Representatives.

About 6 in 10 Americans (58%) believe Biden knew there were classified documents in his home, which is close to the number who say Pence was aware (50%). However, far more (80%) believe Trump knew about the classified documents in his possession.  About 4 in 10 are very concerned that the classified documents found in either Trump’s (40%) or Biden’s (38%) homes would pose a threat to national security if they fell into the wrong hands. Fewer (22%) say they are very concerned about the threat posed by Pence’s documents.

There are some significant partisan differences in public opinion on the classified documents matter. Somewhat more Democrats (91%) than Republicans (72%) believe Trump was aware of the presence of classified documents at his home, while many more Republicans (79%) than Democrats (39%) believe Biden was aware. When it comes to being very concerned about the national security implications of these documents, the partisan splits are similar for Trump (62% of Democrats and just 14% of Republicans) and Biden (62% of Republicans and just 20% of Democrats).

“Obviously, we don’t know exactly what was contained in any of these classified documents. But partisans are already inclined to believe that the other party’s guy took more sensitive information than their own guy,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute.

Interestingly, there is not much partisanship evident in opinion about the documents in Pence’s possession. About half of all partisan groups think the former vice president knew about the presence of these documents in his home. Close to 1 in 4 Republicans, Democrats, and independents are very concerned about their national security implications, although Republicans are somewhat more likely than others to say they are not too concerned.

The poll also finds that most Americans (85%) believe other former presidents and vice presidents are likely to have some classified documents in their homes and offices. Just 24% are very concerned these documents could pose a national security threat if they fell into the wrong hands. There are no partisan differences in public opinion on these questions regarding other former officeholders.

Turning to overall performance ratings for the current president, 43% approve of the job Biden is doing as president while 48% disapprove. The current rating is similar to December (42% approve and 50% disapprove) before the classified documents story broke. Biden’s rating dipped as low as 36% approve and 58% disapprove in June.

“The initial fallout from the classified documents discovery has been ‘no harm, no foul’ for Biden so far,” said Murray.

The poll also asked about the performance of congressional leadership. Now that Kevin McCarthy has taken the gavel as Speaker of the House, 19% approve of the job he is doing and 35% disapprove. Nearly half (46%) of the American public doesn’t know enough about him to form an opinion. The current results are only slightly different from the ratings he earned in December when he was still the minority leader. The main change has been a positive shift among his fellow Republicans, from 29% approve and 20% disapprove at the end of last year to 41% approve and 11% disapprove in the current poll. Still, about half (48%) of Republicans have no opinion of him.

 McCarthy’s GOP counterpart in the U.S. Senate, Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, on the other hand, remains the least popular congressional leader. He earns negative ratings from the public as a whole (12% approve and 52% disapprove) as well as among his fellow Republicans (15%–45%). On the Democratic side of the aisle, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer earns a negative 24% approve and 37% disapprove rating from all Americans, but a positive 54% to 9% rating among Democrats. Only about one-third of the public has an opinion of the newly elected House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, registering a split of 18% approve and 16% disapprove. Among his fellow Democrats, Jeffries earns a positive 37% approve and 7% disapprove rating, although a majority have not formed an opinion of him yet. Before former Speaker Nancy Pelosi left her leadership post, she held an overwhelmingly positive 69% approve and 10% disapprove rating among her fellow Democrats.

“Despite the drama of 15 rounds of voting, McCarthy starts his speakership as a relatively unknown commodity,” said Murray.

Public opinion on the job the U.S. Congress is doing overall stands at 19% approve and 67% disapprove. This is slightly more negative than in December (26% approve and 62% disapprove).

The Monmouth University Poll was conducted by telephone from January 26 to 30, 2023 with 805 adults in the United States.  The question results in this release have a margin of error of +/- 5.7 percentage points for the full sample. The poll was conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute in West Long Branch, NJ.

QUESTIONS AND RESULTS     

(* Some columns may not add to 100% due to rounding.)

[QUESTIONS 3-6 WERE ROTATED]

Over the past few months, classified documents have been found at the homes of President Biden, former President Trump, and former Vice President Pence.

[QUESTIONS 7-9 WERE ROTATED]

[QUESTIONS 10-12 WERE ROTATED]

[Q15-39 held for future release.]

Methodology

The Monmouth University Poll was sponsored and conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute from January 26 to 30, 2023 with a probability-based national random sample of 805 adults age 18 and older. This includes 281 contacted by a live interviewer on a landline telephone and 524 contacted by a live interviewer on a cell phone, in English. Telephone numbers were selected through a mix of random digit dialing and list-based sampling. Landline respondents were selected with a modified Troldahl-Carter youngest adult household screen. Interviewing services were provided by Braun Research, with sample obtained from Dynata (RDD, n= 569), Aristotle (list, n= 152) and a panel of prior Monmouth poll participants (n= 84). Monmouth is responsible for all aspects of the survey design, data weighting and analysis. The full sample is weighted for region, age, education, gender and race based on US Census information (ACS 2021 one-year survey). For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the error attributable to sampling has a maximum margin of plus or minus 5.7 percentage points (adjusted for sample design effects). Sampling error can be larger for sub-groups (see table below). In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinion polls.

DEMOGRAPHICS (weighted)

Self-Reported

27% Republican

42% Independent

31% Democrat

49% Male

51% Female

28% 18-34

33% 35-54

39% 55+

61% White

12% Black

17% Hispanic

10% Asian/Other

67% No degree

33% 4 year degree

Click on pdf file link below for full methodology and crosstabs by key demographic groups.