Tight Contest in CD07

West Long Branch, NJ – The election in New Jersey’s 7th Congressional District between incumbent Tom Kean, Jr. and challenger Sue Altman is extremely close according to the Monmouth (“Mon-muth”) University Poll. Kean has the edge on a number of issues, including the economy, immigration, and crime while Altman has a large advantage on abortion policy. Overall, voters are somewhat more likely to see Kean’s political views as being in step with the district than Altman’s.

Among all registered voters in the district, 46% will definitely (31%) or probably (15%) vote for Kean and 44% will definitely (32%) or probably (12%) vote for Altman.  [Note: Just over 1 in 10 voters report already casting their ballots. They are included among “definite” supporters for their chosen candidate.] Another 10% of registered voters do not have a preference between the two. Also, just 37% say they will definitely not vote for Kean and 38% will definitely not vote for Altman – which gives both candidates the potential to pick up support in the final weeks of the campaign.

“The level of support for each candidate may be equal right now, but there is more than enough room for one of them to break away. There is a sizable undecided vote and both candidates have relatively high ceilings for their potential vote share,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute.

District voters’ personal assessments of the two candidates are slightly more positive than negative. Kean has a 44% favorable and 40% unfavorable rating while Atman receives a 40% favorable and 36% unfavorable score. However, voters are more likely to see Kean’s political views as being in sync with the district – 49% see him as in line with most residents compared with 33% who see him as out of step – than say the same about Altman – 35% in line compared with 43% out of step.

Kean has the advantage on some of the key issues in the race. This includes economic growth and jobs, which 47% of voters trust him to handle while 38% say the same about Altman. The incumbent also has an edge over the challenger on crime (47% trust Kean, 38% trust Altman), immigration (40% Kean, 33% Altman), and inflation (41% Kean, 37% Altman).

The Democrat has a slight edge when it comes to dealing with corruption (38% trust Altman, 35% trust Kean). The biggest advantage on any issue tested in the poll, however, is on abortion and reproductive policy where 47% trust Altman and just 27% trust Kean.

“Altman’s advantage on abortion far surpasses the edge Kean has on any other issue. But that’s just one part of the equation. The other part is how many voters are actually motivated by this issue,” said Murray.

From among a list of six issues included in the poll, 1 in 4 voters (26%) say that abortion and reproductive policy is the most important issue in their U.S. House vote this year. However, 28% say inflation is their top issue, 19% point to immigration, and 16% name economic growth as the most important factor in their vote. When these top priorities are combined with second choices, inflation emerges as an important factor in the House vote for half (51%) of the electorate, while 4 in 10 are focused on economic growth (41%) and immigration (39%). Abortion and reproductive policy (37%) trails these three issues as a top-two priority. For the remaining issues tested, only 17% choose corruption and 10% pick crime as a top-two issue in their vote for U.S. House. Interestingly, though, these last two issues have featured prominently in media spots by both campaigns.

Demographic findings in the 7th Congressional District vote show both candidates performing strongly with their fellow partisans, but Altman (40%) is doing somewhat better than Kean (37%) among unaffiliated voters not registered with either major party. This is helping to keep the race tight despite Republicans’ 3-point registration advantage over Democrats in this district. Among men, Kean (53%) has more support than Altman (41%) and among women, Altman (47%) does better than Kean (39%).

Drilling deeper into these demographics, though, reveals some important variations in support by gender, race, and education. Among white voters without a college degree, Kean (55%) garners more support than Altman (37%), with only slight differences among men and women in this group. There is a much more noticeable gender gap among white college graduates. While Altman (56%) has a clear advantage over Kean (34%) among white women with a college degree, the reverse is true among white college educated men (51% support Kean and 44% support Altman). New Jersey’s 7th District has a higher than average proportion of voters who hold a college degree.

One factor behind the gender difference in the white college demographic is that men and women are prioritizing different issues. Among college educated white women, 50% say that abortion is one of the top two issues in their U.S. House vote this year. Only 35% of college educated white men say the same. On the other hand, a majority (51%) of these men name economic growth and jobs as an important issue, while 39% of white women with a college degree say the same. Moreover, white men with a college degree are more likely to see Kean (52%) rather than Altman (41%) having political views that align with the district. Among white women with a college degree, though, the candidates are seen similarly on this question (44% say Kean’s views are in line and 43% say Altman’s are in line).

Voters who are Black, Hispanic, Asian or of another race make up only 1 in 6 voters in this district. As a whole, they are more likely to support Altman (43%) rather than Kean (35%). Their most pressing concern in this campaign, by far, is inflation – 57% name it as one of their top two issues. However, few minority voters trust either Kean (32%) or Altman (29%) to handle inflation.

“Which messages will really motivate your base? Altman’s across-the-board advantage on abortion is keeping her competitive. But Kean counters that with strength among voters without a college degree as well as an edge among white college educated men who are more concerned about the economy than other issues,” said Murray.  He added, “Altman is doing well among minority voters in this district, but there is lower overall motivation to get out and vote this year. On top of that, they don’t see much difference between the two House candidates on the issue that matters most to them.”

Turnout is the name of the game in an election this close. The two-candidate vote share remains tight when looking at different types of electorates. The race is a toss-up among extremely motivated voters (48% Kean and 47% Altman) or if turnout looks like the electorates in either 2020 (47% Kean and 45% Altman) or 2022 (47% Kean and 47% Altman). Kean won this district by just under 3 percentage points two years ago. The Republican would have a bit of an edge if turnout looks more like 2021’s gubernatorial electorate (49% Kean and 45% Altman).

Another wild card in this race is the potential support for the Libertarian or Green Party candidates on the ballot. Currently, 6% of registered voters say they will definitely or probably vote third party. This would be an unusually high result in this district, but with these voters allocated into the mix, their willingness to vote third party could hurt Kean a little more than Altman. Among extremely motivated voters, for example, Altman has 47% support and Kean has 45% support, with up to 4% potentially backing a third-party candidate if all of these voters follow through on that intention. That leaves 4% of the motivated electorate who are undecided on the House race, which is more than enough to swing the race in either direction regardless of the third-party vote.

It is also worth looking at vote intent at the top of the ticket, which is an important driver in the House race. Four years ago, President Joe Biden won the currently configured 7th District by just under 4 percentage points. Among all registered voters this year, and taking into account potential third-party voting, 47% support Donald Trump and 46% back Kamala Harris. Among extremely motivated voters, though, Harris (49%) has a slight edge over Trump (47%). Another 2% of motivated voters support a third-party candidate while just 1% are undecided on their presidential choice. These results align with recent national polling from Monmouth.

“There are practically no undecided presidential voters at this point. It’s all about motivation. However, a good chunk of these voters have yet to make up their minds about who to back in the House election. They are going to turn out, which means any late breaking down-ballot decisions could determine who wins this seat,” said Murray.

The vast majority of voters in the district say they will definitely (64%) or probably (18%) vote for candidates from the same party for president and U.S. House. There are slightly more potential split-ticket voters among current Harris supporters (12%) than current Trump backers (8%). Voter outreach will be a key factor. Just under 3 in 10 district voters report being contacted on behalf of one of the House campaigns. These contacts are evenly divided between the Kean and Altman efforts. 

The Monmouth University Poll also asked 7th District voters about their choice in New Jersey’s U.S. Senate race. Democrat Andy Kim (46%) has somewhat more support than Republican Curtis Bashaw (40%), with 14% having no preference between the two. Kim maintains an electoral advantage among extremely motivated voters (50% to 44% for Bashaw), as well as those who voted in the 2020 (48% to 40%) and 2022 (48% to 43%) elections. The race is tied when looking at the 2021 electorate (45% Kim and 45% Bashaw). In 2020, the U.S. Senate vote in the currently configured 7th District was evenly divided. Democratic Sen. Cory Booker won that contest by a 16 point margin statewide. The Republican senate nominee is not a well-known quantity. Half (50%) of the district’s electorate has no opinion of Bashaw compared to just 31% who have no opinion of Kim. Both senate candidates are less familiar to district voters than the House candidates (24% have no opinion of Altman and 16% have no opinion of Kean).

The Monmouth University Poll was conducted by telephone and online from October 10 to 14, 2024 with 603 registered voters in New Jersey’s 7^th Congressional District. The question results in this release have a margin of error +/- 4.7 percentage points. The poll was conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute in West Long Branch, NJ.

QUESTIONS AND RESULTS     

(* Some columns may not add to 100% due to rounding.)

[QUESTIONS 3 & 4 WERE ROTATED]

Looking ahead to the November election…

[QUESTIONS 6 & 7 WERE ROTATED]

Turning to the U.S. Senate race…

[QUESTIONS 9 & 10 WERE ROTATED]

Turning to the U.S. House race in your congressional district…      

[QUESTIONS 13 & 14 WERE ROTATED]

Focusing on the U.S. House race in your district…

METHODOLOGY

The Monmouth University Poll was sponsored and conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute from October 10 to 14, 2024 with a probability-based random sample of 603 registered voters in New Jersey’s 7^th Congressional District. Monmouth is responsible for all aspects of the survey design, data weighting and analysis. Interviews were conducted in English, and included 143 live landline telephone interviews, 237 live cell phone interviews, and 223 online surveys via a cell phone text invitation. Interviewing services were provided by Braun Research using telephone numbers randomly selected from a list of active registered voters obtained from Aristotle. The full sample is weighted for region, age, gender, race and listed partisanship based on the voter list and education based on 2020 US Census information, with adjustments made for self-reported 2020 presidential vote. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the error attributable to sampling has a maximum margin of plus or minus 4.7 percentage points adjusted for sample design effects (1.37). Sampling error can be larger for sub-groups (see table below). In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinion polls.

Demographics (weighted)

Party (registration): 34% Republican, 31% Democrat, 35% unaffiliated, other

Party (self-reported): 31% Republican, 43% Independent, 26% Democrat

Sex: 49% men, 51% women, 1% other

Age: 24% 18-34, 22% 35-49, 28% 50-64, 26% 65+

Race: 83% White, 5% Black, 5% Hispanic, 7% Asian/other

Education: 21% high school or less, 25% some college, 35% 4 year degree, 19% graduate degree

County: 17% Hunterdon, 16% Morris, 22% Somerset, 8% Sussex, 24% Union, 13% Warren

Click on pdf file link below for full methodology and crosstabs by key demographic groups.