Menendez Rating Drops

West Long Branch, NJ – Public opinion of federal officeholders in New Jersey has dipped in the past year, but U.S. Sen. Bob Menendez is the only one who has lost ground with fellow Democrats. The latest Monmouth (“Mon-muth”) University Poll finds that most residents feel a current federal investigation involving the state’s senior senator has at least some impact on his ability to serve. Other poll results show that Sen. Cory Booker retains a net positive rating in the state but has lost ground with independents and Republicans, while President Joe Biden has gone from a split rating to a more negative view mainly due to a decline among independents.

Menendez receives a negative 35% approve and 44% disapprove rating from all New Jersey adults and a 36% approve and 45% disapprove rating from registered voters. This marks a reversal from last year (44% approve and 39% disapprove among voters in April 2022). Menendez has seen his ratings decline among all partisan groups over the past year. While fellow Democrats still give the senator a net positive rating, his approval number has dropped 8 points to 58% and his disapproval number has increased 7 points to 23%. Menendez has a 29% approve and 45% disapprove rating among independents and a 14% approve and 74% disapprove rating among Republicans, both of which are more negative than his ratings from these groups last year.

A majority of New Jerseyans (57%) have heard about Menendez being under a current federal investigation. Six in 10 state residents think this investigation affects his ability to serve the state either a great deal (27%) or somewhat (33%). Majorities of Republicans (55%), Democrats (60%) and independents (61%) feel the current investigation has at least some impact on Menendez’s ability to serve the state, with Republicans (36%) being more likely than Democrats (19%) to say it has a great deal of impact. Among those who were already aware of the investigation before being polled, 65% say it affects Menendez’s ability to serve, with only slight differences across partisan groups in this opinion.

“Public opinion of Sen. Menendez has ranged from positive to evenly divided to negative at different points over the past eight years. The current poll results suggest news of a new federal probe is having an impact on that opinion, perhaps even more so than the last time he faced similar scrutiny,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute.

Looking back to the last time Menendez was under investigation, he continued to hold a slightly positive or evenly divided job rating from the time federal charges were filed against him (e.g. 42% approve and 38% disapprove in May 2015) through his eventual admonishment by the U.S. Senate’s ethics committee (37% approve and 38% disapprove in April 2018). Menendez’s current job rating is currently lower than ratings he received during that time period. Although he won reelection by 11 points in 2018, his job rating dipped into negative territory the following year before returning to positive territory during the Covid pandemic. His rating started to slip at the beginning of this year, with the current poll result being nearly identical to his prior career low in September 2019.

In other Monmouth University Poll results, Booker, the state’s junior U.S. senator, receives a job rating of 46% approve and 40% disapprove from all New Jersey adults and 47% approve and 40% disapprove from registered voters. This marks the first time since 2019 that Booker’s approval rating has

dipped below 50%. It stood at 55% last year. Booker’s rating among Democrats has held steady (currently 83% approve and 9% disapprove), but his net rating has gone from positive to negative among independents (now at 37% approve and 44% disapprove) and grown even more negative than it was among Republicans (now 13% approve and 76% disapprove).

Biden’s job rating as president currently stands at 41% approve and 52% disapprove among all adults and registered voters alike. Last year, he received a narrowly divided 47% approve and 49% disapprove rating from New Jersey voters. The president continues to earn the approval of 8 in 10 Democrats (81%) and almost no Republicans (5%), which is similar to last year. The decline in Biden’s overall rating is driven mainly by an 8-point drop from last year in his approval number among Garden State independents (29%).

The Monmouth University Poll was conducted by telephone from August 10 to 14, 2023 with 814 New Jersey adults. The question results in this release have a margin of error of +/- 5.4 percentage points for the full sample. The poll was conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute in West Long Branch, NJ.

QUESTIONS AND RESULTS     

(* Some columns may not add to 100% due to rounding.)

[Q1 held for future release.]

[Q2-3 previously released.]

[QUESTIONS 5 & 6 WERE ROTATED]

[Q9-12 previously released.]

[Q13-47 held for future release.]

Methodology

The Monmouth University Poll was sponsored and conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute from August 10 to 14, 2023 with a probability-based random sample of 814 New Jersey adults age 18 and older. Interviews were conducted in English, and included 245 live landline telephone interviews, 360 live cell phone interviews, and 209 online surveys via a cell phone text invitation. Telephone numbers were selected through random digit dialing and landline respondents were selected with a modified Troldahl-Carter youngest adult household screen. Monmouth is responsible for all aspects of the survey design, data weighting and analysis. The full sample is weighted for region, age, education, gender and race based on US Census information (ACS 2021 one-year survey). Interviewing services were provided by Braun Research, with sample obtained from Dynata.  For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the error attributable to sampling has a maximum margin of plus or minus 5.4 percentage points adjusted for sample design effects (1.56). Sampling error can be larger for sub-groups (see table below). In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinion polls.

NJ Regions (by county)

North – Bergen, Essex, Hudson, Morris, Passaic, Sussex, Union, Warren

Central – Hunterdon, Mercer, Middlesex, Monmouth, Somerset

South – Atlantic, Burlington, Camden, Cape May, Cumberland, Gloucester, Ocean, Salem

Demographics (weighted)

Party (self-reported): 22% Republican, 43% Independent, 35% Democrat

Sex: 49% Male, 51% Female

Age: 27% 18-34, 34% 35-54, 39% 55+

Race: 55% White, 13% Black, 19% Hispanic, 13% Asian/Other

College: 58% No degree, 42% 4 year degree

Click on pdf file link below for full methodology and crosstabs by key demographic groups.