Dems Ahead For Prez, Senate

West Long Branch, NJ – Joe Biden leads Donald Trump among registered voters in Arizona, but the margin narrows under different turnout models. The Monmouth (“Mon-muth”) University Poll finds the Democrat with a large advantage among Latino voters and a small edge in all-important Maricopa County. In the race for U.S. Senate, Democrat Mark Kelly maintains his lead over incumbent Martha McSally. The poll also finds widespread voter support for a ballot measure to impose an income tax surcharge on high-earners and nominally more support than opposition for a proposition to legalize marijuana, although the latter vote could be close depending on turnout.

Among all registered voters in Arizona, the race for president stands at 48% for Biden and 44% for Trump. The contest stood at a similar 46% to 43% in a poll taken shortly before the state’s presidential primary in March. Another 4% currently support Jo Jorgensen and 3% are undecided. Voter intent includes 42% who say they are certain to vote for Biden (versus 45% who say they are not at all likely to support the Democrat) and 38% who are certain to support Trump (versus 48% who are not at all likely).

Under a likely voter scenario with a somewhat higher level of turnout than in 2016, the race narrows to 48% for Biden and 46% for Trump. The race tightens even more to 47% Biden and 47% Trump when using a likely voter model with lower turnout. Arizona has given its electoral votes to the Democrat only once in the past 70 years (1996). Trump won the state by just under 4 points in 2016.

The Democrat has a large advantage among voters of color (67% to 28%), including Latino voters specifically (63% to 33%). According to the 2016 exit poll conducted by Edison Research for the national networks, Hillary Clinton won Arizona’s Latino vote by a similar 30 points (61% to 31%). Trump leads among white voters (51% to 39%), which is similar to his lead in the 2016 exit poll (54% to 40% for Clinton). Trump has solid support among white voters without a college degree (59% to 33%), but Biden leads among white college graduates (49% to 38%).

“The Latino vote will be crucial to Biden’s chances of flipping this state. At this point, it seems more about turnout rather than his margin of support. Latinos make up a larger share of Arizona’s voter roll than four years ago, but the question is how many will show up?” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute.

ARIZONA: VOTER MODELS
Office:		Registered voters	High likely turnout	Low likely turnout
President
Biden (D)		48%	48%	47%
Trump (R-i)		44%	46%	47%
Other		4%	3%	3%
Undecided		3%	3%	3%
U.S. Senator
Kelly (D)		50%	50%	49%
McSally (R-i)		44%	46%	48%
Other		<1%	<1%	<1%
Undecided		4%	4%	4%
	Source:  Monmouth University Poll, Sep. 11-15, 2020

In populous Maricopa County, which alone accounts for about 60% of the state’s electorate, Biden holds a 9-point lead among registered voters (50% to 41%), a 6-point lead among likely voters in a high turnout scenario (50% to 44%) and a 3-point lead among likely voters in a low turnout scenario (49% to 46%). Trump actually won this county by 3 points four years ago. In the four counties that Hillary Clinton won (Apache, Coconino, Pima, and Santa Cruz) by a cumulative total of 16 points, Biden holds an even larger lead (58% to 36% RV, 60% to 36% high LV, 61% to 36% low LV). Trump holds a commanding lead in the remaining ten counties (60% to 33% RV, 61% to 31% high LV, 60% to 30% low LV). This is slightly better than his 26-point cumulative victory in these counties four years ago.

“Both candidates are solidifying their support in the most partisan areas of the state, but the big prize is still Maricopa County. And we see a notable swing away from Trump there compared to four years ago,” said Murray.

Another key bloc in Arizona is the military vote. Just over one-third of the state’s electorate reside in veteran or military households and these registered voters are almost evenly divided between Biden (48%) and Trump (44%). A majority (58%) of Arizona voters say that Trump respects our military troops and veterans either a great deal (40%) or some (18%). However, more (70%) say the same of Biden (45% great deal and 25% some). This gap narrows slightly among voters in military and veteran households, where 55% say the incumbent respects the military and 63% say the challenger does.

The president gets generally poor marks for his handling of the coronavirus outbreak – 42% say he has done a good job and 55% say he has done a bad job. However, Biden does not have a clear edge over the incumbent on this issue. Voters are split on whether they feel confident (50%) or not confident (49%) in Trump’s ability to put the country on the road to recovery from the pandemic. The results are similar for Biden – 51% confident and 48% not confident.

Biden earns nominally better personal ratings than Trump overall, although they are not particularly stellar. Among registered voters, 42% have a favorable view of the Democrat and 47% have an unfavorable opinion of him. By comparison, 40% have a favorable view of Trump and 51% have an unfavorable opinion of him. Latino voters have a better opinion of Biden (46% favorable and 30% unfavorable) than Trump (32% favorable and 49% unfavorable), although about 1 in 5 have no opinion of either candidate.

– U.S. Senate race –

In Arizona’s U.S. Senate contest, Kelly leads McSally by 6 points among registered voters (50% to 44%), which is identical to where the race stood in March. Among likely voters, his lead is 4 points in a high turnout scenario (50% to 46%) and one point in a low turnout scenario (49% to 48%). Among independents, Kelly has 60% support to 33% for McSally. Among partisans, Kelly has 97% of the Democratic vote while McSally has 88% of the Republican vote.

Kelly gets a positive rating from registered voters – 48% favorable and 29% unfavorable, with 22% having no opinion of him. In March, the Democrat’s rating was 41% favorable, 17% unfavorable, and 42% no opinion. McSally, on the other hand, earns a divided rating of 40% favorable and 42% unfavorable, with 18% having no opinion of her. The Republican’s March rating was similar at 35% favorable and 39% unfavorable, with 26% having no opinion. McSally was appointed to fill the late Sen. John McCain’s seat after she lost the election for the state’s other Senate seat two years ago.

“Kelly is simply well-liked by voters and McSally already has a recent loss under her belt. The advantage of her appointed incumbency seems to be providing limited benefit,” said Murray.

– Other poll findings –

The Monmouth University Poll also asked about two measures on the Arizona ballot this November. There is widespread support for a measure that would add a 3.5% surcharge onto the income tax rate of high-earners in the state to fund teacher pay – 66% among registered voters, 64% among high turnout likely voters, and 61% among low turnout likely voters. Backers include majorities of Democrats (84%), independents (67%), and Republicans (53%). Just 25% of registered voters say they will vote against this.

The margin is closer on a measure to legalize recreational marijuana. Among registered voters, 51% say they will vote for this and 41% will vote against it. This margin shrinks among likely voters in a high turnout scenario (49% for and 43% against) and disappears in a low turnout scenario (47% for and 47% against). A similar measure failed by a vote of 48.7% to 51.3% four years ago. Registered voter support for the current ballot proposition comes from 67% of Democrats and 59% of independents, but just 32% of Republicans.

Most Arizona voters (62%) plan to mail their ballot this fall. Another 10% say they will vote at an early in-person site and just one-fourth (24%) will go to their polling place on Election Day. Just 10% of Biden voters say they will go to the polls on Election Day while 39% of Trump voters intend to do this. More than 6 in 10 (65%) Arizona voters are at least somewhat confident that the November election will be conducted fairly and accurately. Biden voters (70%) are more confident than Trump voters (59%) about the electoral process for November.

Looking at other political figures in Arizona, Democratic U.S. Sen. Kyrsten Sinema – who beat McSally in 2018 – earns a positive 38% favorable and 21% unfavorable rating, with 41% having no opinion of her. Republican Gov. Doug Ducey gets a negative 33% favorable and 46% unfavorable opinion, with 21% having no opinion of him. Arizona voters are also divided on whether Ducey has done a good job (48%) or bad job (49%) handling the coronavirus outbreak.

The Monmouth University Poll was conducted by telephone from September 11 to 15, 2020 with 420 Arizona registered voters. The question results in this release have a margin of error of +/- 4.8 percentage points. The poll was conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute in West Long Branch, NJ.

QUESTIONS AND RESULTS     

(* Some columns may not add to 100% due to rounding.)

[1A.  If Trump/Biden voter, ASK: Are you certain about your vote choice, or might you change your mind before election day?]

[QUESTIONS 2 & 3 WERE ROTATED]

[QUESTIONS 6 & 7 WERE ROTATED]

[QUESTIONS 14 & 15 WERE ROTATED]

[QUESTIONS 16 & 17 WERE ROTATED]

[QUESTIONS 18 & 19 WERE ROTATED]

METHODOLOGY

The Monmouth University Poll was sponsored and conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute from September 11 to 15, 2020 with a statewide random sample of 420 Arizona voters drawn from a list of registered voters. This includes 191 contacted by a live interviewer on a landline telephone and 229 contacted by a live interviewer on a cell phone, in English and Spanish. Monmouth is responsible for all aspects of the survey design, data weighting and analysis. The survey contacted a small oversample of Hispanic voters, but the full sample is proportionately weighted for party registration, age, gender, race, education, and region based on state voter registration list information and U.S. Census information (CPS 2018 supplement). Data collection support provided by Braun Research (field) and Aristotle (voter sample). For results based on the full voter sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the error attributable to sampling has a maximum margin of plus or minus 4.8 percentage points (unadjusted for sample design). Sampling error can be larger for sub-groups (see table below). In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinion polls.

DEMOGRAPHICS (weighted)

REGISTERED VOTERS

Party Registration

35% Republican

33% Other/none

32% Democrat

Self-Reported Party

35% Republican

39% Independent

25% Democrat

48% Male

52% Female

20% 18-34

25% 35-49

28% 50-64

26% 65+

70% White, non-Hispanic

4% Black

22% Hispanic

2% Asian

2% Other race

65% No degree

35% 4 year degree

Click on pdf file link below for full methodology and crosstabs by key demographic groups.