Public Wants Budget Compromise to Avoid Government Shutdown

West Long Branch, NJ – By a 2 to 1 margin, Americans want Congress to compromise on the federal budget in order to avoid a government shutdown. According to the Monmouth (“Mon-muth”) University Poll, neither President Joe Biden nor the Democrats or Republicans in Congress are seen as looking out for the economic well-being of average Americans. The poll also finds the president’s job rating has taken a hit, now sitting at its lowest point since a year ago.

If the federal government does shut down, 43% of the American public will hold the Republicans in Congress most responsible while a slightly higher number will place the blame on the opposite party – either President Biden (27%) or congressional Democrats (21%). As may be expected, 80% of Democrats would blame the GOP while Republicans are split between seeing Biden (46%) or the Democrats in Congress (38%) as being more at fault if a shutdown occurs.

 Nearly two-thirds of the public (64%) wants members of Congress who best represent their own views on spending priorities to compromise on those principles in order to avoid a shutdown. Just 31% say like-minded representatives should stick to their spending principles even if it leads to a shutdown. Republicans (46%) are more likely than independents (30%) and Democrats (21%) to say that members of Congress they agree with should stick to their spending principles even if it causes a shutdown.  Among Republicans who call themselves ideologically conservative, a majority of 52% want their representatives to stick to their principles. This is a much higher number than among self-described liberal Democrats (26%) who want the same.

“The vast majority of Americans want to avoid a shutdown. The faction who does not want any compromise may represent a small proportion of the public, but they hold outsized influence in the U.S. Capitol,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute.

Biden’s overall job performance rating currently stands at 38% approve and 55% disapprove. His approval number is the lowest it has been since September of last year. Between October 2022 and July 2023, his approval rating had ranged between 40% and 44% while his disapproval number registered between 48% and 53%. Compared to the Monmouth University Poll taken in July, Biden’s approval rating has dropped among Democrats (80%, down 8 points), independents (30%, down 8 points), and Republicans (2%, down 4 points) alike.

In other poll ratings, opinion of the job the U.S. Congress is doing stands at 17% approve and 74% disapprove, which are its worst marks in just over a year. Vice President Kamala Harris receives a job rating of 36% approve and 56% disapprove. Only 17% of the public says the country is going in the right direction, while 68% say it is on the wrong track.

The poll also asked to what degree key actors in Washington are concerned with looking out for the economic well-being of average Americans. None receive high marks. For Biden, 28% say he is very concerned while 48% say he is not really concerned. For Democrats in Congress, 22% say they are very concerned and 47% not concerned. For Republicans in Congress, 15% say they are very concerned and 50% not concerned. Among fellow partisans, only Biden scores a majority who say he is very concerned with looking out for average Americans (61% of Democrats). When it comes to Congress, 49% of Democrats say their own party’s members are very concerned. This result is better than the findings for Republicans, where only 30% say their party’s congressional members are very concerned with looking out for the economic well-being of average Americans.

“Nobody in Washington seems to be looking out for Middle America. But it’s interesting that Republicans are less positive than Democrats about their own party’s leadership on this score,” said Murray.

The Monmouth University Poll was conducted by telephone from September 19 to 24, 2023 with 814 adults in the United States.  The question results in this release have a margin of error of +/- 4.3 percentage points for the full sample. The poll was conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute in West Long Branch, NJ.

QUESTIONS AND RESULTS     

(* Some columns may not add to 100% due to rounding.)

[Q8-21 held for future release.]

[Q22-30 previously released.]

Methodology

The Monmouth University Poll was sponsored and conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute from September 19 to 24, 2023 with a probability-based national random sample of 814 adults age 18 and older. Interviews were conducted in English, and included 280 live landline telephone interviews, 286 live cell phone interviews, and 248 online surveys via a cell phone text invitation. Telephone numbers were selected through a mix of random digit dialing and list-based sampling. Landline respondents were selected with a modified Troldahl-Carter youngest adult household screen. Interviewing services were provided by Braun Research, with sample obtained from Dynata (RDD, n= 532), Aristotle (list, n= 106) and a panel of prior Monmouth poll participants (n= 176). Monmouth is responsible for all aspects of the survey design, data weighting and analysis. The full sample is weighted for region, age, education, gender and race based on US Census information (ACS 2021 one-year survey). For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the error attributable to sampling has a maximum margin of plus or minus 4.3 percentage points adjusted for sample design effects (1.59). Sampling error can be larger for sub-groups (see table below). In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinion polls.

Demographics (weighted)

Party (self-reported): 25% Republican, 45% Independent, 30% Democrat

Sex: 49% Male, 50% Female

Age: 29% 18-34, 33% 35-54, 38% 55+

Race: 61% White, 12% Black, 17% Hispanic, 10% Asian/Other

Education: 37% High school or less, 30% Some college, 17% 4 year degree, 16% graduate degree

Click on pdf file link below for full methodology and crosstabs by key demographic groups.