Small Movement Post-Debate

West Long Branch, NJ – Vice President Kamala Harris continues to hold slightly more voter support than former President Donald Trump in the 2024 race for president. There has been practically no change in these numbers since the last national Monmouth (“Mon-muth”) University Poll taken a few weeks after Harris entered the race, with only a handful of voters saying last week’s debate caused them to reconsider their support. Trump has an advantage among economically disaffected voters and handling immigration, while Harris has the edge on leadership qualities and handling abortion, with a large gender gap on these key issues.

Just under half of registered voters say they will either definitely (39%) or probably (10%) vote for Harris in November and, in a separate question, just over 4 in 10 will definitely (34%) or probably (10%) support Trump. About half say they will definitely not vote for Trump (48%), while a smaller number say they definitely will not vote for Harris (42%). These results have changed little from Monmouth’s August poll taken a few weeks after President Joe Biden dropped out of the contest. Harris then stood at 48% total support and Trump was at 43%. In fact, Trump’s support is virtually unchanged from his levels when Biden was in the race from Monmouth polling going back a year.

Last week’s debate was seen as a clear win for Harris, but very few voters report their support in the race has been affected by it. Specifically, 71% say the debate did not raise any doubts about the candidate they were already supporting, while another 17% say they did not see or hear any part of the event. Another 8% of voters say the debate raised some doubts about their choice, but it did not change their minds. That leaves a mere 3% of voters who say the debate caused them to reconsider who they may support for president. Among this impacted group, most are currently supporting Harris. Even if this represents an actual shift in vote choice for this group, it amounts to a net gain of only one point for Harris over what would have been her pre-debate margin among all voters.

“How much this election is shifting is measured in inches rather than yards right now. We are basically at the point where turning out 10,000 extra voters in a key swing state could determine the outcome. Polling tells us the broad contours of the race but it cannot measure these types of micro-shifts,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute.

 Monmouth asked voters about potential support for third-party candidates in the race. Just 1% say they will definitely support one of these candidates while another 3% say they will probably support one of these candidates. However, most of these voters have a low turnout history in prior elections. When potential third-party support is factored into the contest, Trump’s backing stays the same and Harris loses just one percentage point in her overall support.

The question is who will actually vote. If the electorate is identical to turnout from four years ago nothing changes in these numbers. Specifically, among those who were validated as having voted in the 2020 election according to state registration lists, 49% support Harris and 44% back Trump.

The picture of the race shifts slightly when examining a key turnout metric – motivation. Voters who describe themselves as extremely motivated to cast a ballot this year represent just over two-thirds (70%) of all registered voters. Among this group, Harris has 50% definite or probable support and Trump has 47% support. Third-party candidate backing drops to 2% among extremely motivated voters and the proportion of the motivated electorate who can be described as undecided – meaning they do not lean toward any candidate – is only 1%.

“The media keeps asking about traditional undecided voters who cannot choose between candidates, but at this point they are really inconsequential. Anyone still in this category is unlikely to make up their mind, let alone vote. The story is really about those who are on the fence about voting at all. The campaigns are focused on making the election relevant to voters who are already seen as likely to support them,” said Murray.

Murray added, “Trump right now is doing better with motivated voters than he is with the overall electorate. This includes a good number of voters who may have sat out the 2020 contest. Perhaps they were exhausted by the Trump era when they stayed home four years ago, but that feeling has faded and now they are more upset with the Biden presidency. To counter that, Democrats will be trying to light a fire under voters who already have concerns about Trump but aren’t fully engaged in the election.”

Turning to issues, similar numbers of voters say they have a good idea about the specific policies for helping American families that would be pursued by either Trump (59%) or Harris (54%). Four years ago, these numbers were somewhat higher for Trump (63%) and then-candidate Biden (64%).

The current Democratic nominee continues to hold a slight edge when it comes to “understanding the day-to-day concerns of people like you” – 49% for Harris and 45% for Trump. These results are nearly identical to Monmouth’s pre-debate poll in August (49% for Harris and 44% for Trump). Currently, just 32% of voters say they have benefited from the nation’s economic upturn. This number was higher during Trump’s term in office before the pandemic hit (43% in 2019). Among voters who feel they are not benefitting from the nation’s strong economy, 61% support Trump and 31% back Harris.

On some hot button issues, Trump (56%) is significantly more likely than Harris (45%) to be trusted to handle the issue of immigration. Harris (60%) is significantly more likely than Trump (43%) to be trusted to handle the issue of abortion.

There is a large gender gap in this race – 56% of women currently support Harris and 53% of men currently support Trump – which is especially evident on these two issues. Among men, there is a 26 point gap between trusting Trump on immigration (62%) and trusting Harris (36%). While the gap among women voters on this issue favors the Democrat, it is much smaller than for men – 54% trust Harris and 49% trust Trump on immigration. On the abortion issue, the gap among women is huge, with 27 percentage points separating trust for Harris (66%) and trust for Trump (39%). Harris maintains an edge on handling abortion among men, albeit by a smaller 5 point margin (53%, while 48% trust Trump).

 “There’s a reason why Harris spent so much time on abortion and Trump repeatedly hit on immigration during the debate. These are issues that clearly differentiate them and can mobilize large blocs of their supporters, as well as potential supporters,” said Murray.

Harris scores slightly higher than Trump on some leadership metrics. Currently, 58% of voters are at least somewhat confident that Harris has the mental and physical stamina necessary for the presidency, while 50% say the same about Trump. Monmouth’s August poll had Harris at 57% and Trump at 47% on this same metric.

On new leadership questions in the current poll, 52% of voters are confident that the federal government would be in safe hands with Harris as president while 48% say the same about Trump. Similar numbers say the term “strong leader” describes Harris (52%) as say it applies to Trump (51%). There is a large gender gap on these personal qualities, similar to voter opinion on the issues. This is particularly true when it comes to the candidates’ mental and physical stamina. Two-thirds (67%) of women are confident in Harris on this measure but only 43% feel the same about Trump. Among men, 58% are confident in Trump’s stamina while 50% feel the same about Harris. The poll finds that overall voter opinion of the two major party tickets, along with the current incumbent, has remained steady over the past month. Half (50%) have a favorable opinion of Harris and 44% have a favorable opinion of Trump. Only 39% have a favorable opinion of Biden. The double-hater phenomenon – disliking both candidates – remains less of a factor in the current race between Harris and Trump (7%) than it would have been if it were still a Biden-Trump contest (16%). For the two major party running mates, Democrat Tim Walz holds a net positive rating with 41% having a favorable view of him and 38% an unfavorable one, with both numbers increasing a few points since August. Republican J.D. Vance maintains a net negative score of 36% favorable and 43% unfavorable, which is similar to his August rating.

 The jump in enthusiasm that was evident when Harris initially stepped in for Biden remains evident in the current poll. Overall, 69% of voters are either very or somewhat enthusiastic about the Harris-Trump race. This includes 84% of Democrats, 74% of Republicans, and 54% of independents.

 In other poll findings, 69% of voters are at least somewhat confident that the 2024 election will be conducted fairly and accurately. This includes 91% of Democrats and 66% of independents, but only 45% of Republicans. Four years ago, a slightly smaller number (60%) was confident in the fair and accurate conduct of that year’s election, but there was much less variation among the views of Democrats (68%), independents (56%), and Republicans (55%).

“I wonder if there might be a little too much optimism about the election process among Democrats based on what we are seeing in state court cases and hearing from intelligence reports. Watch this space,” said Murray.

On the generic congressional ballot, 48% of voters currently support the Democratic congressional candidate in their U.S. House district, while 47% back the Republican. Monmouth’s August poll showed the national House ballot at 48% for the Democrats and 46% for the Republicans among all registered voters. Among extremely motived voters, Democrats currently have a 50% to 47% edge over Republicans for the House.

The Monmouth University Poll was conducted by telephone and online from September 11 to 15, 2024 with 803 registered voters in the United States. The question results in this release have a margin of error +/- 3.9 percentage points. The poll was conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute in West Long Branch, NJ.

QUESTIONS AND RESULTS     

(* Some columns may not add to 100% due to rounding.)

[QUESTIONS 1 & 2 WERE ROTATED]

[QUESTIONS 4 & 5 WERE ROTATED]

[QUESTIONS 6 & 7 WERE ROTATED]

[QUESTIONS 11 & 12 WERE ROTATED]

[QUESTIONS 13 & 14 WERE ROTATED]

[QUESTIONS 15 & 16 WERE ROTATED]

[QUESTIONS 17 & 18 WERE ROTATED]

[QUESTIONS 19 & 20 WERE ROTATED]

[QUESTIONS 21A & 21B WERE ROTATED]

[QUESTIONS 22A & 22B WERE ROTATED]

[Q24-25 held for future release.]

A few questions on the November election in general…

METHODOLOGY

The Monmouth University Poll was sponsored and conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute from September 11 to 15, 2024 with a probability-based national random sample of 803 voters. Monmouth is responsible for all aspects of the survey design, data weighting and analysis. Interviews were conducted in English, and included 140 live landline telephone interviews, 502 live cell phone interviews, and 161 online surveys via a cell phone text invitation. Interviewing services were provided by Braun Research using telephone numbers randomly selected from a list of active registered voters obtained from Aristotle. The full sample is weighted for region, age, gender, race and listed partisanship based on the voter list and education based on US Census information (2022 CPS and 2021 ACS one-year surveys), with adjustments made for self-reported 2020 presidential vote. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the error attributable to sampling has a maximum margin of plus or minus 3.9 percentage points adjusted for sample design effects (1.30). Sampling error can be larger for sub-groups (see table below). In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinion polls.

Demographics (weighted)

Party (registration/inferred from vote history): 35% Republican, 34% Democrat, 31% other, none

Party (self-reported): 28% Republican, 42% Independent, 30% Democrat

Sex: 48% men, 51% women, 1% other

Age: 24% 18-34, 23% 35-49, 26% 50-64, 27% 65+

Race: 69% White, 11% Black, 12% Hispanic, 8% Asian/other

Education: 31% high school or less, 30% some college, 24% 4 year degree, 15% graduate degree

Click on pdf file link below for full methodology and crosstabs by key demographic groups.