West Long Branch, NJ – Most Americans agree with the U.S. leaving Afghanistan, even if many think the actual withdrawal was seriously mishandled. Still, few believe that postponing the pullout would have improved the situation, according to the latest Monmouth (“Mon-muth”) University Poll. The poll also finds a dip in public sentiment that the country is heading in the right direction and evenly divided opinion on President Joe Biden’s job performance.
Biden currently holds a job rating of 46% approve and 46% disapprove. His approval number has declined since April (54%). This drop has happened among all partisan groups. The president gets a positive rating from 86% of Democrats (95% in April), 40% of independents (47% in April), and 5% of Republicans (11% in April).
The percentage of Americans who say the country is headed in the right direction (29%) versus the wrong track (65%) has become more negative since July (38% right direction to 56% wrong track). The right direction rating hit an eight-year high in April (46%), but has declined since then. The current reading is similar to the results for this metric just after the November election (26% right direction and 68% wrong track).
“Most Americans approve of ending the war in Afghanistan, but the images of a disorderly withdrawal did not help Biden at a time when the rise in Covid cases is already unsettling the public,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute.
Americans are divided over whether Biden seriously mishandled the withdrawal of U.S. forces from Afghanistan (48%) or if he did the best he could in a bad situation (49%). At the same time, only 29% believe the current Afghan situation would have been better if the U.S. had postponed the withdrawal deadline until later in the year. Most Americans (62%) say the situation there would be the same no matter when we withdrew. Among those who feel Biden mishandled the situation, 47% say it would have been better if the U.S. pushed back its deadline while 42% say the situation would have been the same regardless.
Two-thirds of Americans (66%) approve of the decision to withdraw the U.S. presence in Afghanistan. Just 27% disapprove. Approval for this policy decision, regardless of how the actual pullout was handled, comes from about 3 in 4 Democrats (76%) and independents (72%) but just under half of Republicans (47%).
“Donald Trump actually teed up the decision to withdraw, but Republicans are divided about the policy. It’s not a stretch to imagine this partisan split on making the call to leave Afghanistan would have been flipped if the move happened under the former president’s watch,” said Murray.
About one-third of the public (32%) says it is very likely that the Afghanistan withdrawal will lead to a foreign terrorist attack on U.S. soil in the next few years, and another third (32%) say this is somewhat likely. More Republicans (59%) than independents (31%) and Democrats (10%) feel that a terrorist attack arising from the U.S. leaving Afghanistan is very likely.
The poll also finds the public’s job rating for Congress stands at 22% approve and 65% disapprove. Congressional approval had been hovering between 30% and 35% at the beginning of the year, but dropped in June (to 21%). The current reading is in line with Monmouth polls through most of the Trump years, when approval ranged between 16% and 25% except for two 32% marks in the early months of the pandemic last year.
The Monmouth University Poll was conducted by telephone from September 9 to 13, 2021 with 802 adults in the United States. The question results in this release have a margin of error of +/- 3.5 percentage points. The poll was conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute in West Long Branch, NJ.
QUESTIONS AND RESULTS
(* Some columns may not add to 100% due to rounding.)
1.Do you approve or disapprove of the job Joe Biden is doing as president?
| TREND: | Sept. 2021 | July 2021 | June 2021 | April 2021 | March 2021 | Jan. 2021 |
| Approve | 46% | 48% | 48% | 54% | 51% | 54% |
| Disapprove | 46% | 44% | 43% | 41% | 42% | 30% |
| (VOL) No opinion | 8% | 8% | 9% | 5% | 8% | 16% |
| (n) | (802) | (804) | (810) | (800) | (802) | (809) |
2.Do you approve or disapprove of the job the U.S. Congress is doing?
| TREND: | Sept. 2021 | July 2021 | June 2021 | April 2021 | March 2021 | Jan. 2021 |
| Approve | 22% | 23% | 21% | 35% | 30% | 35% |
| Disapprove | 65% | 62% | 65% | 56% | 59% | 51% |
| (VOL) No opinion | 13% | 15% | 15% | 9% | 11% | 14% |
| (n) | (802) | (804) | (810) | (800) | (802) | (809) |
| TREND: Continued | Nov. 2020 | Early June 2020 | May 2020 | April 2020 | Feb. 2020 | Jan. 2020 | Dec. 2019 | Nov. 2019 | Sept. 2019 | Aug. 2019 | June 2019 | May 2019 | April 2019 | March 2019 | Jan. 2019 |
| Approve | 23% | 22% | 32% | 32% | 20% | 24% | 22% | 23% | 21% | 17% | 19% | 20% | 24% | 23% | 18% |
| Disapprove | 64% | 69% | 55% | 55% | 69% | 62% | 65% | 64% | 68% | 71% | 69% | 71% | 62% | 68% | 72% |
| (VOL) No opinion | 13% | 9% | 13% | 13% | 11% | 14% | 13% | 13% | 11% | 13% | 12% | 9% | 14% | 9% | 10% |
| (n) | (810) | (807) | (808) | (857) | (902) | (903) | (903) | (908) | (1,161) | (800) | (751) | (802) | (801) | (802) | (805) |
| TREND: Continued | Nov. 2018 | Aug. 2018 | June 2018 | April 2018 | March 2018 | Jan. 2018 | Dec. 2017 | Sept. 2017 | Aug. 2017 | July 2017 | May 2017 | March 2017 | Jan. 2017 |
| Approve | 23% | 17% | 19% | 17% | 18% | 21% | 16% | 17% | 18% | 19% | 19% | 25% | 23% |
| Disapprove | 63% | 69% | 67% | 71% | 72% | 68% | 65% | 69% | 69% | 70% | 68% | 59% | 66% |
| (VOL) No opinion | 14% | 14% | 14% | 12% | 11% | 11% | 19% | 15% | 13% | 11% | 13% | 16% | 11% |
| (n) | (802) | (805) | (806) | (803) | (803) | (806) | (806) | (1,009) | (805) | (800) | (1,002) | (801) | (801) |
| TREND: Continued | Sept. 2016* | Aug. 2016* | June 2016* | March 2016 | Jan. 2016 | Dec. 2015 | Oct. 2015 | Sept. 2015 | Aug. 2015 | July 2015 | June 2015 | April 2015 | Jan. 2015 | Dec. 2014 | July 2013 |
| Approve | 15% | 14% | 17% | 22% | 17% | 16% | 17% | 19% | 18% | 18% | 19% | 21% | 18% | 17% | 14% |
| Disapprove | 77% | 78% | 76% | 68% | 73% | 73% | 71% | 71% | 72% | 69% | 71% | 67% | 70% | 73% | 76% |
| (VOL) No opinion | 8% | 9% | 7% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 12% | 11% | 11% | 12% | 10% | 12% | 11% | 11% | 10% |
| (n) | (802) | (803) | (803) | (1,008) | (1,003) | (1,006) | (1,012) | (1,009) | (1,203) | (1,001) | (1,002) | (1,005) | (1,003) | (1,008) | (1,012) |
* Registered voters
3.Would you say things in the country are going in the right direction, or have they gotten off on the wrong track?
| TREND: | Sept. 2021 | July 2021 | June 2021 | April 2021 | March 2021 | Jan. 2021 |
| Right direction | 29% | 38% | 37% | 46% | 34% | 42% |
| Wrong track | 65% | 56% | 57% | 50% | 61% | 51% |
| (VOL) Depends | 4% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 4% | 3% |
| (VOL) Don’t know | 2% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 4% |
| (n) | (802) | (804) | (810) | (800) | (802) | (809) |
| TREND: Continued | Nov. 2020 | Early Sept. 2020 | Aug. 2020 | Late June 2020 | Early June 2020 | May 2020 | April 2020 | March 2020 | Feb. 2020 | Jan. 2020 |
| Right direction | 26% | 27% | 22% | 18% | 21% | 33% | 30% | 39% | 37% | 37% |
| Wrong track | 68% | 66% | 72% | 74% | 74% | 60% | 61% | 54% | 57% | 56% |
| (VOL) Depends | 4% | 4% | 4% | 5% | 4% | 4% | 5% | 4% | 6% | 6% |
| (VOL) Don’t know | 2% | 3% | 2% | 3% | 1% | 3% | 5% | 3% | 1% | 1% |
| (n) | (810) | (867) | (868) | (867) | (807) | (808) | (857) | (851) | (902) | (903) |
| TREND: Continued | Dec. 2019 | Nov. 2019 | Sept. 2019 | Aug. 2019 | June 2019 | May 2019 | April 2019 | March 2019 | Nov. 2018 | Aug. 2018 | June 2018 | April 2018 | March 2018 | Jan. 2018 |
| Right direction | 32% | 30% | 30% | 28% | 31% | 29% | 28% | 29% | 35% | 35% | 40% | 33% | 31% | 37% |
| Wrong track | 56% | 61% | 61% | 62% | 62% | 63% | 62% | 63% | 55% | 57% | 53% | 58% | 61% | 57% |
| (VOL) Depends | 8% | 7% | 6% | 8% | 6% | 4% | 7% | 6% | 7% | 6% | 3% | 5% | 6% | 3% |
| (VOL) Don’t know | 4% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 4% | 1% | 3% |
| (n) | (903) | (908) | (1,161) | (800) | (751) | (802) | (801) | (802) | (802) | (805) | (806) | (803) | (803) | (806) |
| TREND: Continued | Dec. 2017 | Aug. 2017 | May 2017 | March 2017 | Jan. 2017 | Aug. 2016* | Oct. 2015 | July 2015 | June 2015 | April 2015 | Dec. 2014 | July 2013 |
| Right direction | 24% | 32% | 31% | 35% | 29% | 30% | 24% | 28% | 23% | 27% | 23% | 28% |
| Wrong track | 66% | 58% | 61% | 56% | 65% | 65% | 66% | 63% | 68% | 66% | 69% | 63% |
| (VOL) Depends | 7% | 4% | 5% | 4% | 4% | 2% | 6% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 5% |
| (VOL) Don’t know | 3% | 5% | 3% | 5% | 2% | 3% | 4% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 3% | 4% |
| (n) | (806) | (805) | (1,002) | (801) | (801) | (803) | (1,012) | (1,001) | (1,002) | (1,005) | (1,008) | (1,012) |
* Registered voters
4.Which of the following comes closer to your view of how President Biden handled the withdrawal of U.S. forces from Afghanistan – he did the best he could in a bad situation or he seriously mishandled the withdrawal? [CHOICES WERE ROTATED]
| Sept. 2021 | |
| Did best he could | 49% |
| Mishandled the withdrawal | 48% |
| (VOL) Don’t know | 3% |
| (n) | (802) |
5.Regardless of how it was handled, do you approve or disapprove of the decision to withdraw the U.S. presence in Afghanistan?
| Sept. 2021 | |
| Approve | 66% |
| Disapprove | 27% |
| (VOL) Don’t know | 7% |
| (n) | (802) |
6.Do you think the current situation in Afghanistan would have been better if the U.S. had postponed the deadline for withdrawal until later in the year, or do you think that the situation in Afghanistan would be the same no matter when we withdrew?
| | Sept. 2021 |
| Better if postponed | 29% |
| Same no matter when | 62% |
| (VOL) Don’t know | 9% |
| (n) | (802) |
7.How likely is it that the withdrawal from Afghanistan will lead to a foreign terrorist attack on U.S. soil in the next few years – very likely, somewhat likely, not too likely, or not at all likely?
| Sept. 2021 | |
| Very likely | 32% |
| Somewhat likely | 32% |
| Not too likely | 20% |
| Not at all likely | 11% |
| (VOL) Don’t know | 6% |
| (n) | (802) |
[Q8-25 held for future release.]
[Q26-39 previously released.]
METHODOLOGY
The Monmouth University Poll was sponsored and conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute from September 9 to 13, 2021 with a national random sample of 802 adults age 18 and older. This includes 281 contacted by a live interviewer on a landline telephone and 521 contacted by a live interviewer on a cell phone, in English. Telephone numbers were selected through a mix of random digit dialing and list-based sampling. Landline respondents were selected with a modified Troldahl-Carter youngest adult household screen. Monmouth is responsible for all aspects of the survey design, data weighting and analysis. The full sample is weighted for region, age, education, gender and race based on US Census information (ACS 2018 one-year survey). Data collection support provided by Braun Research (field), Dynata (RDD sample), and Aristotle (list sample). For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the error attributable to sampling has a maximum margin of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points (unadjusted for sample design). Sampling error can be larger for sub-groups (see table below). In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinion polls.
| DEMOGRAPHICS (weighted) |
| Self-Reported |
| 26% Republican |
| 41% Independent |
| 33% Democrat |
| 48% Male |
| 52% Female |
| 30% 18-34 |
| 32% 35-54 |
| 38% 55+ |
| 63% White |
| 12% Black |
| 17% Hispanic |
| 8% Asian/Other |
| 70% No degree |
| 30% 4 year degree |
Click on pdf file link below for full methodology and crosstabs by key demographic groups.
