DeSantis Message Falls Flat

West Long Branch, NJ – A majority of Republican voters say former President Donald Trump would be their strongest nominee in the 2024 election and few feel the criminal indictments he faces are of any concern. According to the Monmouth (“Mon-muth”) University Poll, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis’ efforts to paint himself as both a stronger candidate and a more effective leader than Trump have largely failed to connect with the GOP electorate.

When asked whom they would like to see as the Republican nominee for president in 2024, 46% of GOP-aligned and leaning voters name Trump and 20% name DeSantis without any prompting. In a primary ballot question that explicitly lists 14 announced candidates, Trump’s support increases to 54% while DeSantis’ vote share barely moves (22%) and no other candidate gets above 5%. In a head-to-head contest between just the two, Trump garners 55% support and DeSantis gets 35%. These results are similar to a Monmouth poll taken two months ago when DeSantis officially launched his campaign.

Half of Republican voters identify as a supporter of the MAGA movement (31% strongly and 21% somewhat). Trump commands the backing of 3 in 4 strong MAGA supporters and about half of those who support MAGA somewhat. In a head-to-head race, DeSantis (47%) has more backing than Trump (39%) among the 4 in 10 Republicans who do not support MAGA. However, the Florida governor loses about half of his non-MAGA vote share to others when the race involves a multi-candidate field.

“DeSantis has not made any headway. The arguments that he’d be a stronger candidate and a more effective president than Trump have both fallen flat,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute.

Just 22% of Republican voters say that DeSantis would be a stronger candidate than Trump in a general election against incumbent President Joe Biden, but nearly twice as many (47%) say he would actually be weaker than Trump. Another 26% say DeSantis would be just as strong as Trump. On the question of governing, only 19% feel DeSantis would be more effective than Trump in running the country and getting his policies enacted, while 49% think Trump would be more effective than DeSantis. Another 30% say the two men would be equally as effective.

When considering the entire GOP field, nearly half (45%) of Republican voters – including those who lean toward the GOP – say Trump is definitely the strongest candidate to beat Biden in 2024, and another 24% think he is probably the strongest candidate. Just one-third of GOP voters say another Republican would definitely (13%) or probably (18%) be a stronger candidate than Trump. These results are nearly identical to a Monmouth poll taken in May.

Only 1 in 4 Republican voters express any real degree of concern (11% very and 16% somewhat) that the criminal indictments against Trump would make him a weaker candidate against Biden in the general election. In fact, nearly half (47%) are not at all concerned about these charges being a drag on Trump.

“Trump has successfully pushed a politics of grievance where the system is out to get you. In that light, the criminal charges seem to make him an even stronger advocate in the eyes of many Republicans,” said Murray.

The Monmouth University Poll assessed GOP voters’ opinion of fourteen declared candidates for the party’s nomination in 2024. Republicans have an overwhelmingly positive view of Trump (77% favorable and 18% unfavorable), which has been fairly stable since Monmouth began tracking candidate ratings at the beginning of the year. DeSantis also gets a largely positive rating (65% favorable and 18% unfavorable), but this has steadily eroded from his top result of 80% favorable in February.

Views of Sen. Tim Scott (49% favorable and 7% unfavorable) and former Gov. Nikki Haley (42% favorable and 20% unfavorable) have been fairly stable, but about 4 in 10 Republican voters remain largely unfamiliar with either of these South Carolinians. Other candidates who are rated by at least half of the Republican electorate include former Vice President Mike Pence (35% favorable and 45% unfavorable) and former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (18% favorable and 55% unfavorable). Pence’s rating was in net positive territory until the current poll. Christie’s rating has been negative from the start and has grown even more negative since the spring.

 At least a third of Republican voters are familiar enough to rate business entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy (32% favorable and 9% unfavorable), talk show host Larry Elder (28% favorable and 15% unfavorable), and former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson (15% favorable and 21% unfavorable). The remaining five candidates are rated by no more than 1 in 4 GOP voters: North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum (11% favorable and 9% unfavorable), former Texas Congressman Will Hurd (8% favorable and 11% unfavorable), Miami Mayor Francis Suarez (8% favorable and 17% unfavorable), business entrepreneur Perry Johnson (5% favorable and 9% unfavorable), and former Cranston, Rhode Island Mayor Steve Laffey (3% favorable and 9% unfavorable).

When all 14 candidates are included in a primary ballot test, none – other than Trump and DeSantis – get close to breaking out of single digits. The top performers in this group are Ramaswamy (5%), Christie (3%), Haley (3%), Pence (3%), and Scott (3%).

The poll also tested head-to-head contests between Trump and two other candidates – both of whom do worse than DeSantis in this scenario. Against Scott, Trump gets 72% and Scott only gets 23%. Against Christie, Trump gets 82% and Christie gets just 12%.

The Monmouth University Poll was conducted by telephone and online from July 12 to 19, 2023 with 681 Republican and Republican leaning voters in the United States. The question results in this release have a margin of error of +/- 5.9 percentage points for the full sample. The poll was conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute in West Long Branch, NJ.

QUESTIONS AND RESULTS     

(* Some columns may not add to 100% due to rounding.)

[Q1-22 from national poll of all adults previously released.]

[QUESTIONS 26-28 WERE ROTATED]

Methodology

The Monmouth University Poll was sponsored and conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute from July 12 to 19, 2023 with a probability-based national random sample of 681 registered voters who identify with or lean toward the Republican Party. Interviews were conducted in English, and included 198 live landline telephone interviews, 236 live cell phone interviews, 237 online surveys via a cell phone text invitation, and 10 online surveys via an email invitation. Telephone numbers were selected through a mix of random digit dialing and list-based sampling. Landline respondents were selected with a modified Troldahl-Carter youngest adult household screen. Interviewing services were provided by Braun Research, with sample obtained from Dynata (RDD, n= 232), Aristotle (list, n= 355) and a panel of prior Monmouth poll participants (n= 94). Monmouth is responsible for all aspects of the survey design, data weighting and analysis. The full sample is weighted for region, age, education, gender and race based on voter list and US Census information (ACS 2021 one-year survey). For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the error attributable to sampling has a maximum margin of plus or minus 5.9 percentage points adjusted for sample design effects (1.56). Sampling error can be larger for sub-groups (see table below). In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinion polls.

Click on pdf file link below for full methodology and crosstabs by key demographic groups.