Trials Have Little Impact on 2024 Race

West Long Branch, NJ – More voters agree than disagree with a New York jury’s guilty verdict against former President Donald Trump. What does that mean for preferences in the upcoming election? Very little, according to the latest Monmouth (“Mon-muth”) University Poll. Trump and President Joe Biden continue to draw almost identical levels of support, although voter enthusiasm for this rematch has increased among both Republicans and Democrats. The poll also finds that most voters think the criminal charges against Trump were politically motivated, while nearly half say the same about the recent trial involving the current president’s son, Hunter Biden.

Nearly half (47%) of American voters agree with the jury’s verdict finding Trump guilty of falsifying business records, while 34% disagree. One in 5 have no opinion, but when pressed for a response, they split about evenly between agreeing and disagreeing with the verdict. Among Republicans, just 11% agree with the verdict and 66% disagree with it; among Democrats, 87% agree and only 4% disagree; and among independents, 44% agree and 32% disagree.

Just under 6 in 10 voters (57%) think it is likely that the decision to bring these charges against Trump was politically motivated. This includes 93% of Republicans and 60% of independents, but just 17% of Democrats. As a comparison, 48% of voters think the charges against Hunter Biden were politically motivated. This includes 63% of Democrats and 47% of independents, as well as 34% of Republicans – which is twice the number of Democrats who say the charges in Trump’s trial were politically motivated. [Note: the poll was completed prior to Tuesday’s verdict in the Biden case.]

“Many Americans are skeptical about these high profile trials and there is a clear partisan gap depending on which defendant we are talking about. Still, the results indicate Republicans have a higher level of distrust in our judicial process than Democrats do,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute.

Taken together, 27% of voters feel that the charges in both trials were politically motivated. Another 29% say this was true only in Trump’s case and 21% say this was true only in Biden’s case. Just 17% say neither case was driven by politically motives. A follow-up question asked voters with differing views on these cases to describe in their own words why they feel that way. Many of those who think only Trump’s trial was politically motivated say his actions weren’t really criminal, that a state court wrongly tried what should have been federal charges if they were true, and that the New York City venue was inherently biased. They also believe the Hunter Biden case was more clear-cut. Among those who think Biden’s trial was politically motivated, some feel that it was done only to get at his father, in part to balance the fact that Trump was facing trial. Responses also pointed to the fact that a plea deal was in the works but rejected as evidence of political motivation in the Biden case.

In the end, almost nothing has changed in voter intentions about the upcoming election since before these trials began. Just over 4 in 10 registered voters say they will either definitely (31%) or probably (12%) vote for the Democratic incumbent and, in a separate question, a nearly identical number will definitely (32%) or probably (12%) support the former Republican president. About half say they will definitely not vote for Biden (49%) and an identical number say they have definitely ruled out Trump (49%). These results have not moved much since last fall.

Enthusiasm for a rematch between the 2020 presidential candidates has increased over the past few months. Currently, just under half express some level of enthusiasm for the contest between Biden and Trump – 26% very and 22% somewhat enthusiastic. This combined level of 48% who are enthusiastic marks a continued increase in enthusiasm from just 27% in December and 39% in April. This increase has occurred among all partisan groups, but Republicans (71%) remain much more eager than Democrats (46%) about the upcoming rematch. Independents (34%), on the other hand, are among the least enthusiastic voters.

“Voter enthusiasm has a limited impact on actual turnout. But it is interesting how the partisan gap on this metric continues to favor Republicans as enthusiasm increases the closer we get to Election Day,” said Murray.

One subset of the electorate who are almost universally apathetic about having to choose between Biden and Trump are those described as double haters – voters who hold an unfavorable view of both candidates. Nearly 1 in 5 registered voters (19%) fall into this category and 83% of them say they are not at all enthusiastic about the upcoming replay of the 2020 presidential election. The incumbent has a slight advantage among this double hater group in terms of their vote intention, with 28% saying they are definite or probable Biden voters and 19% saying they are definite or probable Trump supporters. However, most double haters (54%) say they will not vote for either candidate. Overall, just 2% of American voters have a favorable opinion of both candidates, 41% have a favorable view of Trump only and 38% have a favorable view of Biden only.

In other poll findings, 48% of voters say they support the Republican congressional candidate in their U.S. House district, while 45% currently back the Democrat. Among independent voters, Republican candidates have a 47% to 39% advantage over Democrats on the generic House ballot.

The Monmouth University Poll was conducted by telephone from June 6 to 10, 2024 with 1,106 adults in the United States. The question results in this release are based on 1,034 registered voters and have a margin of error +/- 3.9 percentage points. The poll was conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute in West Long Branch, NJ.

QUESTIONS AND RESULTS     

(* Some columns may not add to 100% due to rounding.)

[Q1-3 previously released.]

[QUESTIONS 4 & 5 WERE ROTATED]

[Q7-14 held for future release.]

[QUESTIONS 15 & 16 WERE ROTATED]

[Q19-29 held for future release.]

[The following question was asked of those who think only one of the two cases was politically motivated, n=530.]

[Q36-38 previously released.]

METHODOLOGY

The Monmouth University Poll was sponsored and conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute from June 6 to 10, 2024 with a probability-based national random sample of 1,106 adults age 18 and older. Interviews were conducted in English, and included 262 live landline telephone interviews, 348 live cell phone interviews, and 496 online surveys via a cell phone text invitation. Telephone numbers were selected through a mix of random digit dialing and list-based sampling. Landline respondents were selected with a modified Troldahl-Carter youngest adult household screen. Interviewing services were provided by Braun Research, with sample obtained from Dynata (RDD, n= 756), Aristotle (list, n= 182) and a panel of prior Monmouth poll participants (n= 168). Monmouth is responsible for all aspects of the survey design, data weighting and analysis. The full sample is weighted for region, age, education, gender and race based on US Census information (ACS 2022 one-year survey). The results in this poll release are based on a subsample of 1,034 registered voters. For results based on the sample of registered voters, one can say with 95% confidence that the error attributable to sampling has a maximum margin of plus or minus 3.9 percentage points adjusted for sample design effects (1.66). Sampling error can be larger for sub-groups (see table below). In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinion polls.

Demographics (weighted)

Party (self-reported): 30% Republican, 41% Independent, 30% Democrat

Sex: 49% male, 50% female, 1% other

Age: 25% 18-34, 34% 35-54, 40% 55+

Race: 63% White, 12% Black, 16% Hispanic, 9% Asian/other

Education: 33% high school or less, 31% some college, 19% 4 year degree, 16% graduate degree

Click on pdf file link below for full methodology and crosstabs by key demographic groups.