Clinton, Trump Neck and Neck; McCain on Track for Reelection

West Long Branch, NJ  – Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump are in a virtual tie for Arizona’s electoral votes, according to the Monmouth University Poll .  In the race for U.S. Senate, incumbent John McCain holds a double digit advantage over Democratic challenger Ann Kirkpatrick.

Among Arizona voters likely to participate in November’s presidential election, 46% currently support Trump and 45% back Clinton.  Another 4% intend to vote for Libertarian Gary Johnson and 1% say they will support Green Party candidate Jill Stein.  This is Monmouth’s first 2016 election poll in the Grand Canyon State.

Clinton has a 67% to 27% lead among non-white voters.  More specifically, she has a 65% to 30% lead among Hispanic voters, a group that makes up over one-fifth of the state’s likely electorate.  Trump holds a 56% to 35% lead among white voters, including a 64% to 26% lead among white men and a 66% to 28% lead among white voters without a college degree.  On the other hand, the race is extremely tight among white women (47% Trump to 44% Clinton) and white college graduates (45% Trump to 43% Clinton).

Clinton has a sizable 52% to 42% edge among voters who report having already submitted their ballots during the state’s early voting period, while Trump leads by 49% to 41% among those who have yet to vote.  Currently, 4-in-10 of those polled say they have already voted.  Observers expect more than half of all Arizona voters will cast their ballots prior to November 8 ^th .

“Clinton is banking a significant advantage in Arizona’s early vote.  Trump has to count on every other voter who says they are supporting him now to actually show up on Election Day,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute.

Like voters across the country, Arizona voters take a dim view of both major party nominees.  Only 34% have a favorable opinion of Trump while 56% hold an unfavorable view of him.  Likewise, only 32% have a favorable opinion of Clinton while 57% hold an unfavorable view of her.

Turning to the state’s U.S. Senate race, five-term incumbent John McCain holds a 10 point lead over Congresswoman Ann Kirkpatrick.  The race stands at 50% for McCain and 40% for Kirkpatrick, with 4% supporting the Green Party’s Gary Swing.  McCain and Kirkpatrick are basically tied at 45% to 44% in the early vote so far, but McCain has a much larger 54% to 38% lead among voters who have yet to cast their ballots.

“McCain is sitting on a decent lead, but it’s worth noting that he has won all five of his previous senate races by more than 20 points,” said Murray.

McCain holds a 56% to 34% lead among white voters, while Kirkpatrick has a similar 53% to 39% lead among non-white voters.  However, Hispanic voters specifically, who make up most of the nonwhite group, are evenly divided at 46% for McCain and 46% for Kirkpatrick.  McCain leads among white men (65% to 26%) and, by a much smaller margin, among white women (47% to 43%).

Looking at down ballot effects, McCain gets the support of 79% of Trump voters and 19% of Clinton voters.  Kirkpatrick can claim coattails from 77% of Clinton voters, but gets only 9% of Trump’s crossover vote.  Voters who are undecided in the presidential contest or are supporting a third party candidate prefer McCain over Kirkpatrick in the U.S. Senate race by a 62% to 16% margin.

McCain’s electoral strength is built on a respectable job performance rating from Arizona voters – 52% approve and 39% disapprove of the job he has done in Washington.  He also has a net positive personal rating of 43% favorable and 33% unfavorable, with 23% expressing no opinion of him personally.  Voters are more divided on Kirkpatrick, giving her a 30% favorable and 28% unfavorable rating, with 42% expressing no opinion of her.

The Monmouth University Poll  was conducted by telephone from October 21 to 24, 2016 with 401 Arizona residents likely to vote in the November election.  This sample has a margin of error of ± 4.9 percent.  The poll was conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute in West Long Branch, NJ.

DATA TABLES

QUESTIONS AND RESULTS                                                                        

(* Some columns may not add to 100% due to rounding.)

Regardless of who you may support…

[QUESTIONS 4 & 5 WERE ROTATED]

[QUESTIONS 6 & 7 WERE ROTATED]

METHODOLOGY

The Monmouth University Poll was sponsored and conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute from October 21 to 24, 2016 with a random sample of 401 likely Arizona voters.  Interviews were conducted by a live caller in English, including 351 drawn from a list of registered voters (200 landline / 151 cell phone) and a random digit dial supplement of 50 cell phone interviews.  Monmouth is responsible for all aspects of the survey design, data weighting and analysis. The final sample is weighted for age, gender, race and partisanship based on voter list and U.S. Census information.  Data collection support provided by Braun Research (field), Aristotle (voter list sample), and SSI (RDD sample).  For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the error attributable to sampling has a maximum margin of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points (unadjusted for sample design).  Sampling error can be larger for sub-groups (see table below).  In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinion polls.

Click on pdf file link below for full methodology and results by key demographic groups.