Vote of Confidence?
First, some encouraging news for anyone interested in the continued health of our democracy: According to a recent Monmouth University Poll[1], 95% of registered voters say they are “certain” (85%) or “likely” (10%) to cast a ballot in the 2020 election. What’s more: 64% of voters say they are feeling “optimistic” about this presidential election, an increase compared to four years ago.
Now for some concerning news: Many voters also say they are worried about outside interference affecting the integrity of the results. As is often the case, there are stark differences along partisan lines about the likely source of any potential meddling. Here’s a look at how confident American voters are feeling as they prepare to head to the polls.
Most Voters Trust the Process
A majority of those polled—slightly more than 6 in 10 voters—say they are either “very confident” or “somewhat confident” that the November election will be conducted fairly and accurately. That includes majorities of Democrats (68%), Republicans (65%), and independents (57%) alike. But a closer look at the numbers reveals that more than one-third of voters still have little confidence in the election being conducted fairly and accurately.
How confident are you that the November election will be conducted fairly and accurately?
| Very Confident | Somewhat Confident | Not too Confident | Not at All Confident |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21% | 42% | 24% | 12% |
| Very Confident | Somewhat Confident | Not too Confident | Not at All Confident | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democrats | 30% | 38% | 24% | 8% |
| Republicans | 16% | 49% | 24% | 10% |
| Independents | 17% | 40% | 24% | 17% |
Voting by Mail is Polarizing
In recent months, one of the biggest points of contention between Republicans and Democrats has been whether voting by mail affects the integrity of election results. President Donald Trump, despite having voted by mail himself, has repeatedly criticized the process, claiming it leads to fraud. Democratic nominee Joe Biden has voiced support for expanding access to it. Predictably, opinions on it among registered voters are split along party lines, but the majority of American voters favor making it easier to cast ballots by mail.
Do you think it is a good idea or bad idea to make it easier for more voters to cast their ballots by mail this year?
| Bad Idea | Good Idea |
|---|---|
| 37% | 58% |
| Bad Idea | Good Idea | |
|---|---|---|
| Democrats | 7% | 90% |
| Republicans | 72% | 20% |
| Independents | 32% | 60% |
Suspicions of Meddling Persist
Despite most voters having some degree of confidence in how the election will be administered, nearly 3 in 4 of them—72% of voters—say they are concerned that outside interference could cast doubt on the legitimacy of the outcome.
How concerned are you about the possibility that election meddling could undermine the integrity of the results?
| Very Concerned | Somewhat Concerned | Not too Concerned | Not at All Concerned |
|---|---|---|---|
| 37% | 35% | 16% | 10% |
| Very Concerned and Somewhat Concerned | Not Too Concerned and Not at All Concerned | |
|---|---|---|
| Democrats | 42% | 36% |
| Republicans | 35% | 31% |
| Independents | 34% | 36% |
Fingers are Pointing Everywhere
Voters who voiced concerns about election meddling have differing opinions as to who or what might be responsible for interfering. Not surprisingly, the suspected culprits vary widely depending on voters’ political affiliations. A sizable number of Democratic voters (53%) concerned about meddling think a foreign power will be involved; many see Russia as the most likely perpetrator. Meanwhile, a majority of GOP voters (55%) concerned about meddling say the Democratic Party will be responsible for the malfeasance.
Who do you think is most likely to be the source of election meddling?[2]
| Dem. | Rep. | Ind. | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Democrats | 1% | 20% | 55% |
| Joe Biden | 0% | 3% | 4% |
| Nancy Pelosi | 0% | 1% | 1% |
| Republicans | 16% | 8% | 2% |
| Donald Trump | 31% | 20% | 2% |
| Russia | 40% | 21% | 6% |
| China | 9% | 9% | 12% |
| Other Country | 4% | 8% | 3% |
| The media | 0% | 3% | 2% |
| Vote by mail/the post office | 2% | 4% | 11% |
| Government election officials | 5% | 4% | 1% |
| Social media | 1% | 1% | 0% |
| Other | 6% | 8% | 10% |
| No answer | 8% | 11% | 6% |
Footnotes
1 The Monmouth University Poll was conducted by telephone from Aug. 6 to 10, 2020, with a national random sample of 868 adults age 18 and older, in English. The results detailed here are based on 785 registered voters and have a +/- 3.5 percentage point sampling margin of error. More Information on the Methodology
2 Multiple response question; percentages add to more than 100%.
Main photo by iStock.com/LPETTET